Lansing Mich. House Dems aim to regain power lost in 2010

By Jeff Karoub Associated Press DETROIT (AP) -- After the largest Republican sweep in decades sapped Democrats of power in 2010, party leaders in the Michigan House said Monday they're working to regain the majority by focusing on fundraising, candidate training and door-to-door campaigning. Democratic lawmakers and candidates gathered in Lansing to discuss their plans and prospects for the November election. They say there's cause for optimism, even with legislative districts that were redrawn by the Republican majority, last week's defection of Grand Rapids Rep. Roy Schmidt to the GOP and an all-out effort by the GOP to retain power in the House and Michigan Supreme Court. Rep. Jeff Irwin, a Democratic campaign co-chairman from Ann Arbor, acknowledged that 2010 was a "horrible year" for Michigan Democrats, but said he sees a silver lining in the redistricting effort. In 2010, Democrats won every seat that had at least a 48 percent Democratic voting base. Using that criteria, party leaders have counted 59 seats on the new maps they think are winnable. "If we maintain a similar performance that we did in 2010, which is a real low-water mark ... we're on a path to the majority," Irwin said. "The map gives us a path to victory." Still, the election two years ago was a stunning reversal of fortune for the House Democrats, who already controlled the majority when they picked up nine seats in 2008. In 2010, Republicans picked up 20 seats, giving both the House and Senate GOP majorities. Irwin said Democratic voters -- anywhere from 300,000 to 500,000 -- didn't show up at the polls in 2010, which he said could have been a "hangover from the high-water mark in 2008," when President Barack Obama was elected. The lawmaker expects Democrats will be outspent by Republicans, a repeat of the last election cycle, but said fundraising is off to a strong start: House Democrats raised more than $410,000 in the first quarter of 2012 and had about $675,000 in cash on hand as of April. That compares with $444,000 raised during the same quarter in 2010, and about $647,000 in cash on hand in April of that year. But political strategists say out-of-power Democrats could receive the biggest boost from something that's out of their hands -- a strong showing for Obama's re-election bid in Michigan. According to an analysis released this month by Target Insyght -- a Lansing-based market research and public relations company -- factors determining if Democrats regain control of the House include Obama winning Michigan with at least 54 percent of the vote and Democrats having at least a 6 percentage point advantage over Republicans in the makeup of the electorate. Democrats have to gain 11 seats to get the majority and it could happen "if everything broke for them the right way," said Bill Ballenger, editor of the Inside Michigan Politics newsletter and a former GOP lawmaker. He said it's unlikely, as he doubts Obama will win the state by 17 points as he did against Sen. John McCain in 2008. "All (Democrats) can do from now on is cross their fingers and hope for a big Obama landslide," Ballenger said. Even if they don't win back the majority, any gains could help Democrats reach their goal in 2014. And there's pressure to regain control this year, as Republican Gov. Rick Snyder and the GOP-controlled Legislature are able to push through policies Democrats oppose. Irwin believes the president will do well in Michigan, largely because he pushed through federal bailouts and managed bankruptcies for General Motors and Chrysler. "I can't imagine a bigger plus than going into the election with the president ... who rescued the domestic auto industry," Irwin said. "The president stuck his neck out for Michigan when it matters most." Published: Wed, May 23, 2012