Berl Falbaum
Why? What is the objective? Is it worth alienating China? What can be accomplished? Do we need another crisis?
These and many other questions come to mind following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
Even as Speaker, she has no power over foreign relations which rests with the executive branch of the government — the president — thus, her visit, no matter how positively viewed, is no more than a public display of solidarity with Taiwan, which could be done with statements from Washington.
She did not have to visit Taiwan to indicate that the U.S. is committed to an independent Taiwan democracy. Indeed, President Biden has expressed that policy numerous times, including to China’s president, Xi Jinping.
Why antagonize China when risks of miscalculations and unintended consequences are so high. No matter how careful each side tries to be, the situation can easily spin out of control.
China immediately condemned the visit in strong language and conducted military exercises in the area. Xi reportedly warned Biden during an earlier phone call that, “Those who play with fire will eventually get burned.”
While Biden and his administration did not criticize Pelosi publicly, it was reported that privately she was asked to reconsider. The president, State Department, and the military were all united in the view that the House Speaker was making a mistake. Biden said the military told him that Pelosi’s trip was “not a good idea.”
If nothing else, she should have given way to Biden, showing respect for the presidency and recognize that he is, after all, the one responsible for U.S. foreign policy and will have to deal with the fallout from an irate China.
Biden did not directly tell her not to go because she heads an independent, separate part of the government, the legislative branch. Having served in the U.S. Senate, the president understands clearly that members of Congress jealously guard their independence.
But China’s Xi, a dictator, may not fully understand that Biden, under the constitutional separation of powers, lacked the power to order Pelosi to cancel her visit. That would be too much for him to grasp given his absolute control.
But talk about strange bedfellows: While snubbing the Democratic Biden, Pelosi, the Democratic leader of the House, received support from several Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. It doesn’t get much weirder than that.
We can be sure, however, that Biden doesn’t need or want another crisis on his desk, especially one that pits two superpowers against each other. He has his hands full with inflation, Ukraine, COVID, the mid-term election, to mention a few.
Most important, China has been held in check regarding the Ukraine. It has not assisted Russia by sending military aid or other assistance. The Pelosi visit might well change that equation. China may rethink its position given what it views as an unforgiveable provocation by the U.S.
Then, as mentioned above, there is the issue of unforeseeable consequences and inadvertent miscalculations. It is not difficult to foresee an unwanted military confrontation between the U.S. and China even if Pelosi believes she has carefully reviewed all contingencies. Nothing is “bullet proof” especially in such sensitive and high-risk situations.
A “war” between these two superpowers would not serve the interests of either nor the world as a whole. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, the last thing we need right now — or ever — is a “second front.”
(And think of the millions spent by the military, which sent aircraft carriers to the area to protect Pelosi on her visit).
So, is her visit worth the risk when the consequences can be so dire? For what?
She cannot win any policy gains with her visit nor would the U.S. suffer any losses had she canceled her trip.
As New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman wrote the day before she arrived in Taiwan:
If she goes ahead with the visit, “…she will be doing something that is utterly reckless, dangerous and irresponsible.
“Nothing good will come of it. Taiwan will not be more secure or more prosperous as a result of this purely symbolic visit, and a lot of bad things could happen.”
In trying to downplay the significance of Pelosi’s visit, the Biden administration pointed out that such a visit was not setting any precedents, nor did it have any policy implications.
True, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan 25 years ago but the China of 1997 is not the China of 2022. Today, it is much more powerful militarily and economically than it was when Gingrich visited.
Swallowing some pride by canceling her trip would have been preferable than escalating and promoting an international crisis, particularly one between two nuclear powers.
Pelosi is a talented and effective politician, one for whom I have the utmost respect. She knows better. She has displayed exceptional leadership as speaker and handled the inept bully, Donald Trump, with commendable skills. But she apparently forgot that Xi isn’t Trump.
All we can do now is hope that the “cooler heads” will prevail in China.
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Berl Falbaum is a veteran political journalist and author.
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